bayesian-fuelcycle

This repository contains code for using the Cyclus simulation software (https://fuelcycle.org) inside a likelihood function used by a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inference process driven by PyMC3.

This sounds complicated.

However, it is somewhat easy. For technical details, please refer to my bachelor's thesis at thesis/thesis.pdf, especially to its third and fourth sections.

The directories here are organized as follows:

• cluster/: scripts for running different inference scenarios on the RWTH SLURM cluster.
• cyclus/: Disregard; only used for testing the Cyclus integration.
• docs/: Presentations I've held about this topic.
• log/: A log of all inference runs as well as my work log.
• notebooks/: Supporting code in Jupyter notebooks.
• result_data/: CDF files containing PyMC3 samples.
• sampling/: The core code for running inferences using Cyclus.
• blackbox/: Core code for blackbox likelihood function integration with PyMC3.
• cyclus_db/: Extraction of results from Cyclus' SQLite simulation databases.
• models/: Specific Cyclus models
• visualize/: Evaluation of collected samples.
• singularity/: Notes on running Cyclus inside a Singularity container.
• thesis/: My thesis.

Not Ready for Reuse

Parts of this code are still under development by the authors, notably the code and models in sampling/models/pakistan, in preparation of a presentation and publication in a journal or conference proceedings.